Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Is this a game of chicken?

Prof. Bainbridge thinks it is a game of chicken. He also has identified the correct analogy to throwing the steering wheel out the window.

Two members of the Spineless Seven Republicans from the "Gang of 14" have already said they will vote for the constitutional option if the Dems filibuster.

Let us do a little math. The Republicans have 55 seats and the Vice President who would presumably vote for the constitutional option in the event of a 50/50 tie. The odds are pretty good that this means there are, therefore, 45 locked in seats to defeat the constitutional option. So the Dems need 6 Republicans to cross the line and support them or they must swerve because they need 51 votes. There were only 7 willing to support the "Gang of 14" document to avoid the fight last time. The right wing has shown its teeth (on this particular issue no less) recently which had not happened the last time.

7 - 2 = 5
5 < 6

At this point they need at least one non-gang Republican to cross the line. And every gang member we can get to state that this is not an "extraordinary circumstance" makes it one vote harder. And then Reid pulls an insulting political stunt today. I have a feeling that Bill Frist is not in a mood to be nice to his fellow Republicans unwilling to announce that this is not an extraordinary circumstance.

I think Reid just officially overplayed his hand.


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